2009 Governors Ratings

lets look at the 09 pre-midterms- The two Gubenetorial races:

Toss up- Tilt R -

New Jersey (D)- for a while things looked pretty bad for Corzine. He suffered a bit of the New Jersey Democrats "Summertime blues". For some reason for New Jersey Things always look bleak for democrats in august and September (See Menendez '06, Kerry '04, and even a little bit Obama '08) but things always seem to turn around. This time I'm not so sure. Corzine is unpopular and corrupt. He was down by as much as 14 in the summer but has seemed to come back to being down just 5ish to Christie. This election is a referendum on Corzine. It's going to be a 2 point election not a 12 point election.

Virginia (D)- this race has tightened significantly over the last few days. Right now McDonell (R) holds a 4.67 lead (Averaging the last 3 polls). In Virginia, as in the rest of the country, there was a major swing to the right, and unlike New Jersey we are not accustom to it. McDonnel at one point held a 12.33 point lead, this lead has been cut in half. Momentum is on Deeds side at the moment. Unlike New Jersey this is not a referendum on the currant governor (Seeing as Tim Kane is not running) . in 2008 it hugged the national trend line going 53-46 in Obama's favor, so it will be an interesting indicator of the midterms, but still a year and a half is a long time. I have this as tilting republican at the moment because if the election were today McDonnel would win, but the election isn't today and I think at the end of the day this one will end up as a Deed's victory.