The following is part three of an extended series of posts that will analyze possible candidates for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination. These posts will take a look and who is likely to win the Republican Presidential Nomination, not the general election. While 2012 may be long ahead, I will make these predication as practical and logical as possible.Today I will talk about two dark horse candidates, these may be names you are completely unaware of. Mississippi Govonor, Haley Barbour and former Speaker of the Florida House of Representatives, Marco Rubio.
Haley Barbour
In all honesty, Barbour doesn't have too much going on for him at all. He does have executive experience which most successful presidential candidates have. He's also a strong conservative which the base loves. In the mid 1990s he was RNC chairman, a rather effective one too. He's from the south, which will be great in the primary election. He also comes off as charming, and he's not that old (he'll be 64 in 2012). On the flip side Barbour has a lot going against him. He's overweight and has a very thick southern accent, and while it's terrible, many Americans associate those things with a lack of intelligence. Among his party, he's unpopular. In July 2009, a Rassmussen Reports poll indicated that 34% of registered Republicans have a favorable view of him. However, 37% dislike him, which is the highest unfavorable percentage among 5 other possible Republican candidates for 2012: Dick Cheney, Sarah Palin, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Tim Pawlenty. Also, 21% of GOP voters would least like to see Barbour win the party nomination in 2012. Seriously, when you are losing to Cheney, there's a problem, but who knows, maybe he could change his image. There are also strong allegations that Barbour has personally profited from Hurricane Katrina recovery. Barbour has also received harsh criticism for his refusal to approve a bill to increase the cigarette tax and decrease the grocery tax passed the state House of Representatives. Mississippi currently has the third-lowest cigarette tax and the highest grocery tax—while being the poorest state in the country. Also Fred Thompson's campaign finance investigation found that Barbour, as RNC chair, was involved in illegally raising money from overseas sources.
Marco Rubio
Rubio is what I like to call the Obama of the GOP. Not only because he is very attractive and a minority (Cuban decent) but because he is very charismatic. Compared to every other possible candidate I've done so far, this guy blows them out of the water when it comes to speaking, the only one who comes close is Romney. I mean when I heard this guy speak, I knew this guy could possibly be some serious trouble for Obama down the road. He's also very young (he'll be 42 in 2012), don't forget, youth represents change. He is a very strong fiscal conservative, which the base will eat up. He also doesn't have any dirt on his record, and he's popular in his state, which is a big swing state. On the negative he has no name recognition, and if he doesn't become Senator in 2010 (he's running against Crist) he basically has no chance in hell. He also has no executive experience. He's a poor fundraiser, and like Bobby Jindal, he's Cathloic which could be a problem with the Evanglical base.
Conclusion
So there you have it, two dark horse candidates. Barbour is highly unlikely, and he really doesn't have anything going on for him. While his personality may seem charming, he's known around town to be quite corrupt. Plus he's an old fat white southerner, which is an image the GOP wants to get away from. But who knows, dark horses can get elected, and even win the presidency (Look at Franklin Pierce). Rubio is a serious force to be reckoned with if he becomes Senator. In fact, if he becomes Senator, and he chooses to run, I would put all my money on Rubio. But again, that's a big if, Crist will probably win the seat anyways. It doesn't mean Rubio will be out though, just down.
Showing posts with label 2012 election. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 election. Show all posts
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Wednesday, August 5, 2009
Generic Ballot/Party Identification
I feel guilty writing about this because this site has yet to discuss the major issue of the day: Health Care, but there is a statute of limitation on polls and I will still be able to talk about health care tomorrow and next week.
On Monday a major poll came out and it is bad news for the GOP. Some polls have started to show a come back for the republican party. Some generic ballot polls have even showed them leading the democrats. An NPR Poll showed the GOP ahead 43%-42%, and today the Rasmussen tracking poll (Which in 2008 leaned to the right and again seems to be trending that way) Shows the Republican party ahead of the Democrats by 5 (43%-38%). These polls would give the GOP reasons to be optimistic for 2010 and maybe even 2012. Well on Monday Gallup put a major strain on their optimism.
Gallup did a 50 state party Identification poll with a HUGE Sample Size. 160,000 People were polled, compared to just 425 in the NPR Poll. This huge sample size brings the Margin of Error down to just .24%. This poll showed that there are only 4 Strong red states compared to 30 (Including DC) strong blue states. The Electoral vote for 2008 under such an election would be 353-15 (The Map changes in 2012). Further more it shows 37 Leaning or Strong blue states compared to just 5 Red (439-24). and if you want to do a whole map there are 43 States where Democrats hold an edge and just 6 Where the GOP does (2 Tied). On the 2008 Electoral map this translates to a landslide victory of 500 to 30 (8 Tied) For the Democrats.
This isn't the only shocking part of the poll. States Like Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana are now strong blue states according to the poll. Kentucky gives Dem's a 16 point advantage, Indiana (Which went for Obama by a slim margin) gives them a 10 point advantage . Arkansas Goes to the Democrats by 15 and in West Virginia, a state where Obama lost by 13 points, Dems have a 20 Point advantage. Now I wouldn't start predicting a 20 point win for Obama in Kentucky in 2012, but I certainly would not rule out the possibility that he takes the state (Even though he lost by 17 in November).
Now Some Swing states surprise me too. In Ohio, the Swingiest of swing states, that has predicted the winner of every election since 1944, Democrats hold a 14 Point advantage. In Missouri, a State where Obama lost by the slimmest margin in the entire nation, That has correctly picked the president all but 2 times since 1900 (1956 and 2008), Democrats also hold a 14 point advantage. In Virginia and North Carolina, both of which were considered Red States up until at least 2006, the democrats hold a 12 point advantage. In Florida and Colorado Democrats lead by 9.
There are also Red states that are no longer red states. Texas Gives Dem's a 2 Point advantage. That is the same Texas where George W. Bush was governor, and the currant governor, Rick Perry was/is toying with succession. Oklahoma, The state that is represented in the senate by the most conservative of the most conservative, Tom Coburn who wants to put abortion doctors to death, and James Inhoff who denies global warming, The buck eye states prefers democrats by a 5 point margin. Louisiana also prefers Democrats by 5, Completely understandable after George Bush left it's biggest city, alone, under water for 5 days. and South Carolina Who's Junior Senator wants health care to be Obama's "Waterloo" Now prefers Democrats by 2.
There are a couple other things I want to point out. The Median of the poll, North Carolina Prefers Democrats by 12. I want to draw attention to the States that have a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) of D/R +0. This means they reflect the country within 1% of how it votes. Florida and Colorado are Two of these states they Prefer Democrats by 9. Ohio is also one, the Democrats hold a 14 Point advantage there.
Now what does all this mean for 2010. Democrats hold approximately a 10.67% Generic ballot lead. This is similar to the lead they held in 2008 and 2006. I'm guessing in the house if they held this it would mean a net of +/- 5 seats. Midterm losses or gains would not be big enough to make any major difference in the halls of congress.
How ever if these state Margins hold until 2012 prepare for Obama to win reelection with 450+ Electoral Votes. If the GOP dosen't change before election night 2012, that will be a very, very long night for them.
On Monday a major poll came out and it is bad news for the GOP. Some polls have started to show a come back for the republican party. Some generic ballot polls have even showed them leading the democrats. An NPR Poll showed the GOP ahead 43%-42%, and today the Rasmussen tracking poll (Which in 2008 leaned to the right and again seems to be trending that way) Shows the Republican party ahead of the Democrats by 5 (43%-38%). These polls would give the GOP reasons to be optimistic for 2010 and maybe even 2012. Well on Monday Gallup put a major strain on their optimism.
Gallup did a 50 state party Identification poll with a HUGE Sample Size. 160,000 People were polled, compared to just 425 in the NPR Poll. This huge sample size brings the Margin of Error down to just .24%. This poll showed that there are only 4 Strong red states compared to 30 (Including DC) strong blue states. The Electoral vote for 2008 under such an election would be 353-15 (The Map changes in 2012). Further more it shows 37 Leaning or Strong blue states compared to just 5 Red (439-24). and if you want to do a whole map there are 43 States where Democrats hold an edge and just 6 Where the GOP does (2 Tied). On the 2008 Electoral map this translates to a landslide victory of 500 to 30 (8 Tied) For the Democrats.
This isn't the only shocking part of the poll. States Like Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana are now strong blue states according to the poll. Kentucky gives Dem's a 16 point advantage, Indiana (Which went for Obama by a slim margin) gives them a 10 point advantage . Arkansas Goes to the Democrats by 15 and in West Virginia, a state where Obama lost by 13 points, Dems have a 20 Point advantage. Now I wouldn't start predicting a 20 point win for Obama in Kentucky in 2012, but I certainly would not rule out the possibility that he takes the state (Even though he lost by 17 in November).
Now Some Swing states surprise me too. In Ohio, the Swingiest of swing states, that has predicted the winner of every election since 1944, Democrats hold a 14 Point advantage. In Missouri, a State where Obama lost by the slimmest margin in the entire nation, That has correctly picked the president all but 2 times since 1900 (1956 and 2008), Democrats also hold a 14 point advantage. In Virginia and North Carolina, both of which were considered Red States up until at least 2006, the democrats hold a 12 point advantage. In Florida and Colorado Democrats lead by 9.
There are also Red states that are no longer red states. Texas Gives Dem's a 2 Point advantage. That is the same Texas where George W. Bush was governor, and the currant governor, Rick Perry was/is toying with succession. Oklahoma, The state that is represented in the senate by the most conservative of the most conservative, Tom Coburn who wants to put abortion doctors to death, and James Inhoff who denies global warming, The buck eye states prefers democrats by a 5 point margin. Louisiana also prefers Democrats by 5, Completely understandable after George Bush left it's biggest city, alone, under water for 5 days. and South Carolina Who's Junior Senator wants health care to be Obama's "Waterloo" Now prefers Democrats by 2.
There are a couple other things I want to point out. The Median of the poll, North Carolina Prefers Democrats by 12. I want to draw attention to the States that have a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) of D/R +0. This means they reflect the country within 1% of how it votes. Florida and Colorado are Two of these states they Prefer Democrats by 9. Ohio is also one, the Democrats hold a 14 Point advantage there.
Now what does all this mean for 2010. Democrats hold approximately a 10.67% Generic ballot lead. This is similar to the lead they held in 2008 and 2006. I'm guessing in the house if they held this it would mean a net of +/- 5 seats. Midterm losses or gains would not be big enough to make any major difference in the halls of congress.
How ever if these state Margins hold until 2012 prepare for Obama to win reelection with 450+ Electoral Votes. If the GOP dosen't change before election night 2012, that will be a very, very long night for them.
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