Generic Ballot/Party Identification

I feel guilty writing about this because this site has yet to discuss the major issue of the day: Health Care, but there is a statute of limitation on polls and I will still be able to talk about health care tomorrow and next week.

On Monday a major poll came out and it is bad news for the GOP. Some polls have started to show a come back for the republican party. Some generic ballot polls have even showed them leading the democrats. An NPR Poll showed the GOP ahead 43%-42%, and today the Rasmussen tracking poll (Which in 2008 leaned to the right and again seems to be trending that way) Shows the Republican party ahead of the Democrats by 5 (43%-38%). These polls would give the GOP reasons to be optimistic for 2010 and maybe even 2012. Well on Monday Gallup put a major strain on their optimism.

Gallup did a 50 state party Identification poll with a HUGE Sample Size. 160,000 People were polled, compared to just 425 in the NPR Poll. This huge sample size brings the Margin of Error down to just .24%. This poll showed that there are only 4 Strong red states compared to 30 (Including DC) strong blue states. The Electoral vote for 2008 under such an election would be 353-15 (The Map changes in 2012). Further more it shows 37 Leaning or Strong blue states compared to just 5 Red (439-24). and if you want to do a whole map there are 43 States where Democrats hold an edge and just 6 Where the GOP does (2 Tied). On the 2008 Electoral map this translates to a landslide victory of 500 to 30 (8 Tied) For the Democrats.

This isn't the only shocking part of the poll. States Like Kentucky, West Virginia, Arkansas, Indiana are now strong blue states according to the poll. Kentucky gives Dem's a 16 point advantage, Indiana (Which went for Obama by a slim margin) gives them a 10 point advantage . Arkansas Goes to the Democrats by 15 and in West Virginia, a state where Obama lost by 13 points, Dems have a 20 Point advantage. Now I wouldn't start predicting a 20 point win for Obama in Kentucky in 2012, but I certainly would not rule out the possibility that he takes the state (Even though he lost by 17 in November).

Now Some Swing states surprise me too. In Ohio, the Swingiest of swing states, that has predicted the winner of every election since 1944, Democrats hold a 14 Point advantage. In Missouri, a State where Obama lost by the slimmest margin in the entire nation, That has correctly picked the president all but 2 times since 1900 (1956 and 2008), Democrats also hold a 14 point advantage. In Virginia and North Carolina, both of which were considered Red States up until at least 2006, the democrats hold a 12 point advantage. In Florida and Colorado Democrats lead by 9.

There are also Red states that are no longer red states. Texas Gives Dem's a 2 Point advantage. That is the same Texas where George W. Bush was governor, and the currant governor, Rick Perry was/is toying with succession. Oklahoma, The state that is represented in the senate by the most conservative of the most conservative, Tom Coburn who wants to put abortion doctors to death, and James Inhoff who denies global warming, The buck eye states prefers democrats by a 5 point margin. Louisiana also prefers Democrats by 5, Completely understandable after George Bush left it's biggest city, alone, under water for 5 days. and South Carolina Who's Junior Senator wants health care to be Obama's "Waterloo" Now prefers Democrats by 2.

There are a couple other things I want to point out. The Median of the poll, North Carolina Prefers Democrats by 12. I want to draw attention to the States that have a PVI (Partisan Voting Index) of D/R +0. This means they reflect the country within 1% of how it votes. Florida and Colorado are Two of these states they Prefer Democrats by 9. Ohio is also one, the Democrats hold a 14 Point advantage there.

Now what does all this mean for 2010. Democrats hold approximately a 10.67% Generic ballot lead. This is similar to the lead they held in 2008 and 2006. I'm guessing in the house if they held this it would mean a net of +/- 5 seats. Midterm losses or gains would not be big enough to make any major difference in the halls of congress.

How ever if these state Margins hold until 2012 prepare for Obama to win reelection with 450+ Electoral Votes. If the GOP dosen't change before election night 2012, that will be a very, very long night for them.