The Next Republican Presidential Candiate (Part 1)

The following is part one of an extended series of posts that will analyze possible candidates for the 2012 Republican Presidential nomination. These posts will take a look and who is likely to win the Republican Presidential Nomination, not the general election. While 2012 may be long ahead, I will make these predication as practical and logical as possible. I will discuss the pros and cons of two potential candidates today, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich.

Bobby Jindal

Jindal is not your average politician. For starters, he's very young and has a fresh face, this is a good thing, youth in politics transcends well with voters because often times they are more likely to believe new ideas can come from new politicians. This was one of the main reasons Obama not only beat McCain, but Hillary as well. Jindal also comes from a very modest family background, he is a first generation American who's parents came from India, he represents the American dream, hard work leads to good reward. From a regional perspective Jindal is a good (not great) candidate, he may not be from a swing state, or even a swing region but he is from the south and a moderately large state (he also polls pretty well in his state), which represents a strong constituency in the Republican base, he will need those delegates. Jindal is also known for being a staunch conservative, which in a general election may not be best thing; however, in a primary race it is very important.

The Governor does have some tough hurdles to get over. For starters he wasn't always a Christian, until Jindal was 15, he was a Hindu. This could put off Evangelical voters who a large chunk of the Republican base (and 40% of Republicans in Iowa, the very first contest). Also even though he is a Christian, he is a Catholic who are seen by many Evangelicals as spiritually misguided. His parents are still Hindu, this could be another conflict for Jindal. His faith is going to have to be something he will have to confront on the campaign, which could turn into a huge distraction. Being a former Hindu, and a practicing Catholic will instantly turn off thousands of Evangelical voters which will be a major problem in Iowa and south Carolina, two very important contests. Another problem with Jindal are his speaking abilities, many people question if his speaking abilities are good. His response to the President's State of the Union address was widely seen as poor by conservatives and liberals.

Newt Gingrich

Gingrich is a very experienced politician which helps him in many ways. For starters it has made him an excellent speaker, aside from Sarah Palin (whom I will speculate about her chances in the future), he is probably the most charismatic speaker who actually has a shot. It's not just public speaking either, it's his off the cuff stump speeches and interviews too. Gingrich's experience is responsible for the strong connections he has who will help him fund raise, which is very important in an election (The money will really help in New Hampshire). His experience has also made him very politically aware, Gingrich is an intellectual. Similar to Jindal, the former Speaker comes from the South (Georgia) which is helpful geographically. And while Gingrich is a Cathloic like Jindal, he was always a Christian, and will probably not have the same problems Jindal will have in that area.

Newt's long political career is filled with a lot baggage. In 1992, Gingrich bounced 22 checks when he along with other congressmen wrote rubber checks on government money, this is something that certainly can cause trouble. Gingrich also has had his fair share of problems with women which could cause problems with the Evanglical base, he was married 3 times, and he pressed his first wife to sign divorce papers while she was still in the hospital recovering from cancer surgery. That's just the surface of the Gingrich scandals. He's also old, we all remeber what happened to the last 72 year old who ran for president, he lost in an electoral landslide. Gingrich has also been a staunch defender of the Bush Administration, which in a post 2008 political landscape is very unpopular.

Conclusion

Jindal and Gingrich are both very unique candidates, as well as talented politicians but they both are extreme. One is too young, the other is too old. Gingrich is involved in moral scandals and Jindal is going to have a serious conflict with the religious right because of his past. They aren't totally out of the question, I mean they aren't dark horses (Chuck Hagel, Mark Sanford, etc.) but I certainly wouldn't put my money on them.