Danger, Will Robinson, Danger!

As Obama has entered his 8th month as President, and as people have gotten more acclimated to this Administration, it has been getting clearer and clearer as to how Obama will handle things, and what issues will trip him up. One thing that is never far from my mind is that the 2010 midterm elections are coming up. Midterm elections have, historically, been a referendum on the President and the Party in Power at the time. I'll lay out the issues that I believe can or will cause problems for Obama and the Democrats going in to 2010.

Health Care, Health Care, Health Care
This has become the issue for Americans. A majority of Americans want health care reform, with many supporting universal health care or at least a public option. It's quickly becoming clear that how Obama and Congress handles health care reform will have a huge impact on their electoral chances in 2010. It should go without saying, but health care reform was the main issue that caused the Democrats to lose control of Congress in 1994. A lack of party unity, a focused and coordinated opposition, unclear expectations and uncertain results...sound familiar?

But it doesn't stop there: Economy!
It's a no-brainer: If the economy improves, poll numbers for the Party and President in Power go up. If the economy stagnates or goes down, so does the poll numbers. If the stimulus money doesn't get disbursed quicker, or if people don't think it's working, then there will be a problem. Presidents have resorted to desperate, short-term tactics to make the economy improve over the short term for election purposes. While I'm not saying do that, what I am saying is that people vote their pocketbook. If jobs aren't on the rise for Joe Public, then members of Congress may lose theirs.


Auto Industrial Complex
This one is also important. Cash for Clunkers was good, but having the US auto industry competitive and working again would be a big boon for Obama and the Democrats. A shift to less gas-friendly cars (like Hybrids and the like) will also make many Americans smile, since the cost of energy and gas is a major concern. Emphasizing alternative forms of energy couldn't hurt either.


War! Huh, yeah...what is it good for?
Although this one tends to be lower on the list, it's still a vital issue, both in this writer's opinion and in many others. A long, drawn-out conflict in a foreign country doesn't tend to sit well with voters, especially in the cases of Iraq and Afghanistan. Unless some serious improvement is seen, and troops brought home even, this will be a festering wound barely hidden underneath everything.


That's So Gay...
Social problems like same-sex marriage and abortion will constitute a small but important part of political calculations in 2010. The Bush/Gore lawyers will be contesting Prop 8, and many states will still be considering same-sex marriage legislation. Party unity would be nice, but on this issue I would be surprised to see a consistent message.


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