Tuesday, August 4, 2009

The Stimulus is Working

Critics of President Obama have started to blame him for the bad economy. They believe all the stimulus did was add to our national debt. This has no factual basis whatsoever. There are no numbers you can come up with that will show that since the stimulus has passed the economy has gotten worse.

Let’s start with the stock market. The Dow fell about 2400 points in September under president Bush and continued on its slump until March 9th hitting Rock bottom at 6547. A 46% drop from its high point under Bush. Today the Dow Closed at 9320, which means it is up 42% from march. We could see the Dow back up to 12,000 by the end of the year, which would be approximately a 100% gain because of the stimulus. The S&P is up from 683 to 1005, 47% Jump, and the NASDAQ is up from 1268 to 2011, a 59% Jump.

Now lets look at unemployment , Though it is true that it is at 9.7% and headed up to 10% the Job loss rate has been cut substantially, Between November and December 08 the Job loss was .6%. Between December 08 and January 09 Unemployment jumped from 7.1% to 8.5%, a 1.4% Job Loss. February only saw a .4% Job Loss, March only a .1% and the Unemployment rate actually went down in April by .4%. to 8.6% Unfortunately the trend did not continue into may. it jumped .5% to 9.1 and again in June by .6% to 9.7%. Even though these numbers frankly suck, had there been no stimulus they would suck a lot more.

Our GDP is shrinking at a much slower rate under Obama and the stimulus. In the 3rd Quarter of 2008 our GDP shrank about 3% , in the 4th it Shrank about 5%. Obama inherited a 6 ½% Shrink in the first Quarter of 2009. By the 2nd Quarter of 2009 the shrinkage has slowed to just 1%. If that isn’t proof the stimulus is working I don’t know what is.

The Housing Market saw the Average home price raise this month for the first time in years. Programs like "Cash for Clunkers" have given auto makers reasons to produce again. Both are signs that our economy is on the road to recovery.

The worst of the Recession is over. We are starting to recover. Unemployment will stay high for a while but our Jobs will come back. The Stimulus is Working. The only logical argument against it is that it wasn’t big enough. If jobs continue to decline we may need a 2nd stimulus, perhaps a green one, but the 1st one is responsible for our economy’s faint signs of life. The Stimulus is a success.

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